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我们为何打击半导体业界会复苏的观点?
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We’re also going to focus on a weakness in the semiconductor market that no one else seems to have identified. The memory segment of the semiconductor industry has long been characterized by boom-and-bust cycles, though in recent years, the peaks and troughs have not been very severe. More and more people seem to think that that’s the new normal. But what if it isn’t?
我们还将重点关注一个其他人似乎没有发现问题——半导体市场的疲软。 长期以来,半导体行业的存储市场一直以具有兴衰周期为特征,尽管近年来兴与衰的表现并不十分明显。似乎越来越多的人认为这是新常态。 但如果并不是呢?

BOLAJI OJO: What is concerning right now, Junko, is, we don't really know, we don't really have people in key positions anymore who have actually experienced the wild swings of the market. When you have not experienced it, or when you think that those swings have gone away, then you're not prepared for how to manage it. This is something every semiconductor manufacturer, every OEM, every distributor, every contract manufacturer, and folks in purchasing and engineering have to be aware of. You need to pay attention to the cycle. It has not gotten away; it is still there.
BOLAJI OJO: Junko,现在需要担心的是,我们真的所知甚少,我们现在再也找不到一位经历过市场剧烈波动,且在半导体存储界担任关键职位的人了。 如果你还没有体验过这样的波动,或者你认为那些波动已经消失了,那么你就没有准备好如何去应对它。这是每个半导体制造商,每个OEM,每个分销商,每个承包制造商以及采购和工程人员都必须意识到的问题。 你需要关注这个周期。它并没有消失,它仍然存在。

BRIAN SANTO: That was Bolaji Ojo, global editor in chief of AspenCore Media, the publishing company that includes EE Times. Bolaji has semiconductor forecasting on his mind. We’ll get back to that in a few minutes.
BRIAN SANTO: 以上是Bolaji Ojo,EE Times的发行公司——AspenCore Media全球总编辑。 Bolaji思考了半导体的前景。 我们将在稍后谈到。

Every company does financial and market forecasting. Semiconductor companies are no different on that score. As we get to the end of 2019, industry executives and industry analysts are naturally looking ahead to 2020.
每个公司都会进行财务和市场预测。 半导体公司也不例外。 2019年即将进入最后阶段,行业高管们和业界分析师们自然会展望2020年。

But the semiconductor industry is subject to trends specific to the electronics business. One of those is the boom-and-bust cycle of the memory segment of the market. Bolaji Ojo is global editor-in-chief of AspenCore Media. He’s been covering the semiconductor industry for a long time. As predictions for the semiconductor industry in 2020 roll in, Bola thinks they’re all forgetting something fundamental. Here he is with international editor Junko Yoshida.
但是,半导体行业受电子业务特定趋势的影响。 其中之一就是内存市场的兴衰周期。 Bolaji Ojo是AspenCore Media的全球主编。 他关注半导体行业已有很长时间了。 随着对2020年半导体行业的预测层出不穷,Bola认为他们都忽略了一些基础信息。 他将与国际编辑Junko Yoshida在这一起就此探讨。

JUNKO YOSHIDA: This is a new section. We call it, "What's on Bola's Mind This Week?" So let me ask you this: What's on your mind this week?
JUNKO YOSHIDA: 这是一个新节目。 我们叫它“Bola这周在想什么?” 所以让我问问你:你这周在想什么?

BOLAJI OJO: What's on my mind is Micron Technology, the DRAM and the memory market, the semiconductor market, and especially this key question of whether or not the electronics industry, or rather the semiconductor market, has gotten rid of its notorious boom-and-bust cycles. That's what's on my mind.
BOLAJI OJO: 我在想Micron Technology公司,DRAM和内存市场,半导体市场,尤其是电子工业或更确切地说半导体市场是否摆脱了其名头不好的兴衰周期这一关键问题 。 这就是我在思考的问题。

JUNKO YOSHIDA: Is it, well I mean everybody knows that this is an eternal cycle for memories. So what's your take? What's going to happen next year?
JUNKO YOSHIDA: 是的,我的意思是每个人都知道这是内存市场永恒的周期循环。 那你怎么看? 明年会发生什么?

BOLAJI OJO: Well actually, you know, before I address the issue of what's going to happen next year, this is a think that's been happening now. Over the course of the last maybe three to five years, everybody talks, the industry got rid of its cycle. So they became very mild. And now all of a sudden we've now seen the return to crazy cycles. So here are the examples of craziness, okay?
BOLAJI OJO: 好吧,实际上在我讨论明年将要发生什么之前,这是一种一直存在的想法。 在过去的三到五年中,人人都在谈论,说电子行业已经摆脱了周期规律,所以变得非常平稳。 现在突然之间,我们已经看到这个行业又回到疯狂的周期。 所以我们来聊聊疯狂的例子,好吗?

Take a look at what's happening in the industry. You look and see, in the first half of this year, Samsung Electronics, its sales for the first six months of 2019 went down 33%. SK Hynix, down 35%. Micron Technology, down 29%. Qualcomm, down 11%. And on and on. Nvidia, down 21%. Many of these companies are in that sector — they are in the memory market. And when you want to look at what's happening in the electronics, in the semiconductor market, if you want to see what's happening now and what's going to happen in the future, you have to start by looking at the memory market.
来看看行业中正在发生的事。 我们看到今年上半年的情况,三星电子2019年前六个月的销售额下跌33%, SK Hynix下跌35%,美光科技下跌29%,高通下跌11%,类似情况比比皆是。Nvidia也下跌21%。 这些公司中很多都同在一个领域——内存市场。 当你想要去了解电子产品,半导体市场中正在发生的事情时,如果你想了解现在正在发生什么以及未来将会发生什么,那必须先着眼于内存市场。

Now, that was in the first half of the year. In August, okay, for the quarter ended in August and its fiscal ended August 30, Micron reported its latest revenue. And at glowing, you see the same pattern. Year over year, sales down 42% for the August quarter sales. That's huge! I mean, in what other market and in what other industry do you see this kind of decline? That is what is happening, and that's why this is in my mind.
目前这是今年上半年的情况。在8月份,截止8月30日的财报中,Micron发布了最新收入报告。大致看,你会发现模式相同。 与去年同期相比,8月这个季度的销售业绩下滑了42%。 降幅很大! 我是说,你在其他哪个市场和哪个行业能看得到这样的跌幅? 可这就是正在发生的事,也是为什么我会去思考这个问题的原因。

The fact that somehow because we managed to get hold of our inventory overruns, now we think, Oh, okay. You know what? We've gotten rid of the cycles. That's not the case. And this has very significant implications for the industry. The moment you think that you've gotten rid of the cycles, then you don't pay close attention again to things like topics, to things like inventory, to things like pricing.
事实上,出于一些原因我们设法控制了库存超支的问题。哦你知道吗? 现在我们认为已经摆脱周期规律。 事实并非如此。 这对行业具有非常重要的意义。 当你认为已经摆脱周期规律之后,就不会再密切关注相关话题,库存,以及定价这些事。

Now, average pricing, ASP as they call it in the industry, is now all vertically, sliding down on one side in the DRAM, kind of firming up elsewhere. So many of the people-- and I think, Junko, you've written about this sometime in the past-- many of the folks in the industry today, especially the young ones, they've not really experienced the real cycle of this market. So let me ask you then...
现在,平均价格,也就是业界所称的ASP,已经完全垂直化,在DRAM这个领域下滑,就在其它领域有所上涨。我想,Junko,你在之前有写过这类的文章——当今行业中的许多人,尤其是年轻人,他们并没有真正经历过这一过程,真正经历周期循环的市场。 所以我问问你。。。

JUNKO YOSHIDA: Well, before you go, I just... Where did you get the notion that people were thinking that they were able to get rid of this cycle?
JUNKO YOSHIDA: 好吧,在你提问之前,我想知道,你是从哪里了解到人们认为他们能够摆脱周期循环这种想法的?

BOLAJI OJO: It's all over the place! You would not think of that. You would not think of it like that. But a lot of people thought-- and there have been articles about this. All you need to do is Google it, and you will see articles where people are saying. Well, the industry is now kind of cycle-free because components, electronic components now go into almost every segment of the global economy. As a result, you know, the cycles that are kind of very specific to the market have now been, you know, like kind of, you know, silently we've pressed it down to the point where we can manage it.
BOLAJI OJO: 到处都是这样的想法! 你不会想到的,你也不会那样想。 但是很多人都在这样想——而且有关于这个问题的文章。你去Google 搜索一下,就会看到人们发表言论的那些文章。目前电子行业看似是没有周期性的,因为元件、电子组件现在已几乎进入全球经济的每个领域。 结果就是,现在的周期已经非常特定于市场,就像你知道的那样,我们已经悄然将周期循环降低到可以管控的程度。

JUNKO YOSHIDA: Right, right. Well, back in the days, 1990s for example, memory market was really limited to things like servers and workstations and PCs. Now what you're saying is memory, well chips in general, I mean, they go everywhere, right? So the available total market has really broadened. That's sort of how the idea or the theory goes: the bigger the market is, the cycle threat somehow has lessened.
JUNKO YOSHIDA: 是的,是的。 嗯,例如过去,在1990年代,内存市场实际上局限于服务器、工作站和PC之类的应用。 现在你要谈到内存,一般来讲就是指芯片了,我的意思是,它们无处不在,对吗? 所以,可开拓市场确实是扩大了。这或多或少就是这种想法或者说理论:市场越大,周期规律带来的威胁某种程度上就减轻了。

BOLAJI OJO: And I think that what is concerning right now, Junko, is, we don't really know, we don't really have people in key positions anymore who have actually experienced the wild swings of the market. When you have not experienced it, or when you think that those swings have gone away, then you are not prepared for how to manage it. This is something every semiconductor manufacturer, every OEM, every distributor, every contract manufacturer, folks in purchasing and engineering, have to be aware of. You need to pay attention to the cycle. It has not gotten away. It is still there.
BOLAJI OJO: Junko,现在需要担心的是,我们真的所知甚少,我们现在再也找不到一位经历过市场剧烈波动,且在半导体存储界担任关键职位的人了。 如果你还没有体验过这样的波动,或者你认为那些波动已经消失了,那么你就没有准备好如何去应对它。这是每个半导体制造商,每个OEM,每个分销商,每个承包制造商以及采购和工程人员都必须意识到的问题。 你需要关注这个周期。它并没有消失,它仍然存在。

JUNKO YOSHIDA: So your prognosis for 2020?
JUNKO YOSHIDA: 那么你对2020年的预期如何?

BOLAJI OJO: Well, I mean, what a lot of people are saying right now is that it's going to be better. 2020 is going to be great, it's going to be fantastic. People are ridding of Q4.
BOLAJI OJO: 我想现在很多人都在说2020年情况会更好, 2020年将是很棒的一年,是美好的一年。 人们忽视了今年第四季度。

JUNKO YOSHIDA: Why?
JUNKO YOSHIDA: 怎么讲?

BOLAJI OJO: Why is 2020 going to be great? I don't subscribe to it. You know, look: The reason I don't, because you can never really be sure. Anybody who tells you that they can see further out and 60 days in this industry is just fooling you and fooling themselves. That kind of outlook, that kind of ability to look penetratively into the supply chain and the demand chain has gone away. We just don't have it, because there are two-- again, for the very specific reason that there are too many sectors of this industry, of the global economy, rather, that components, electronic components go into.
BOLAJI OJO: 为什么认为2020年会很棒? 我不同意。 我不这样认为的原因,是你永远无法真正断论未来。 任何告诉你可以看到行业未来60天前景的人都是在自欺欺人。这种前景判断,这种渗透到供应链和需求链中的能力已经消失了。 我们就是没有这种能力,因为有两个——出于非常特殊的原因,这个行业涉及全球经济的部分太多,不止是元件、电子组件。

So you don't really know which one is just going to suddenly shoot up and propel the market higher. And you don't know which one might just suddenly kind of fold and crater the entire industry. So I cannot tell you. I mean, you know, when I'm looking at the DRAM numbers and I look at the market decline of 42%, then I'm asking myself, you know, What's going to happen next year? Are we going to see it snap back? If you see a snap back of 142%, then maybe you're back, 50% you're back at the same point. So you need to go faster than that to actually see stronger growth. And what's that going to mean, Junko, for topics?
所以你真的不知道哪一个会突然就崛起并且推动市场走高。 你也不知道哪一个可能突然衰落下去导致整个行业陷入困境。 因此我也没法给你定论。 我是说,当我看到DRAM的数据,看到市场业绩下降42%时,我就问我自己:明年会发生什么? 我们会看到它的回弹吗? 如果你看到142%的回弹,那也许算回弹了,如果是50%,那就只是回到原点。 因此,你需要比实际看到更强力增长要有更远见。 Junko,这对选题来说意味着什么?

I'm writing a blog now that I'm going to share with you later on. And my question about that is, Are we going to start another panic in this industry where companies start cutting capital expenditures, they start cutting R&D, they start laying off people in thousands because they want to keep margins at a good level. If you do that, and then in March 2020 the market suddenly snaps back, what do you get? You get a sharp upswing with no inventory in place. That's what's on my mind.
我现在正在撰写一篇博客,稍后分享给你。 我的疑问是,我们是否要在这个行业引起另一场恐慌?行业里的公司纷纷开始削减资本支出,减少研发,裁员数千人,因为他们想要保持良好的利润率。 如果这样做,那么在2020年3月市场可能突然回弹,但是他们又会得到什么? 我认为,企业得到业绩飙升,却失去库存。

BRIAN SANTO: The global economy has experienced more than 10 years of generally increasing prosperity. To assume that growth is going to go on "just because" seems to me a dicey combination of optimism, laziness and arrogance. We’ll have to see how 2020 plays out.
BRIAN SANTO: 全球经济经历了十多年的总体繁荣。 在我看来,假设增长将继续下去,不过是乐观、懒惰和自大的想法。 我们不得不等着看2020年的真实情况如何。

感谢收听本期推送,全球联播 (EE|Times On Air) 现已同期在喜马拉雅以及蜻蜓FM上线,欢迎订阅收听!
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