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武汉新冠病毒疫情如何影响电子行业?
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The Outbreak in Wuhan

武汉爆发疫情

BRIAN SANTO: I’m Brian Santo, EE Times Editor in Chief, and you’re listening to EE Times on Air. This is your Briefing for the week ending February 7th.

BRIAN SANTO: 我是EE Times的主编Brian Santo,您正在收听ETimes On Air。以下是截至2月7日的本周播报。

In this episode.

在本期节目中。

With the outbreak of the coronavirus in the city of Wuhan in China, the key issue is the health emergency. But the disruption to global industry is already serious and could get much worse. Today we discuss the economic effects of the coronavirus, with coverage of the damage already done, and a live report from one of our colleagues in Shenzhen.

随着中国武汉市新型冠状病毒的爆发,这次卫生突发事件已经成为关键话题。 疫情对于全球产业的破坏已经很严重,且可能持续加重。今天我们将讨论新冠病毒带来的经济影响及已造成的损害,还会呈现一位深圳同事的现场报道。 

When a new virus outbreak was reported recently in Wuhan, the world shuddered. This new outbreak seems like a replay of the deadly SARS epidemic from 2003. Once again, a coronavirus has jumped from animals to humans, people are dying from it, and it remains unclear whether Chinese people and the rest of the world are getting accurate and thorough information about the spread of the disease, similar to what happened 17 years ago with SARS.

近期武汉爆发新冠病毒,全世界都被该报道震动。这次新冠病毒的爆发似乎像是2003年致命SARS病毒的疫情重现。新型冠状病毒再次从动物传染人类,人们正因此丧命,目前尚不清楚中国人民和世界其他地区是否获得有关病毒传播更准确详尽的信息。该病毒与17年前爆发SARS病毒时的情况类似。

Many have pointed out that the common flu has killed far more people this year in the US alone than have died from the Wuhan virus globally, but the issue is less the number of deaths thus far; the two issues are how readily the virus spreads, and the rate of deaths among those infected. The seriousness of the virus as an epidemic cannot yet be accurately evaluated without more information that the world is still in the process of gathering.

有许多人指出,今年一场普通流感仅在美国造成的死亡人数,就比当前全球因武汉新冠病毒死亡的人数要多。但问题是,只是截至目前死亡人数相比少一些。有两个重要问题:病毒传播的速率,以及被感染者的死亡率。在没有获得更进一步的资料之前,就无法准确评估这种病毒作为传染病的严重性,全世界仍在搜集信息中。

Chinese authorities have extended a major holiday in China, are telling citizens to stay home, and have set up several quarantines. Other countries in Southeast Asia and elsewhere have imposed quarantines of their own. The US is evacuating American citizens from China.

中国当局已经在延长了春节假期,告诉公民们要待在家里,并设立隔离区。东南亚其他国家,以及其他一些国家也实行了隔离政策。美国正从中国撤侨。

The economic damage is already extensive. With shops closed, retail commerce has taken a hit. Estimates of global economic growth in 2020 are already being revised downward. China has suspended much air and rail travel. That, of course, is affecting the travel industry, but that also includes the jam-packed schedule of professional conferences.

疫情已经造成极大的经济损失。随着商店的关闭,零售贸易受到打击。2020年全球经济增长的估值也已经修正下调。中国已暂停大量航空和铁路班次。这显然会影响到旅游业,其中还包括既定的专业会议日程安排。

Huawei has cancelled one of its biggest developers’ conferences. The ACM, a technical society for the computing industry, has postponed at least one major event. SEMI, which represents suppliers of semiconductor production equipment and materials, has postponed two big events: Semicon Korea, which was set to be held in Seoul earlier this week, and Semicon China, which was to be held in March in Shanghai.

华为已经取消了其最大的开发者会议之一。 ACM是计算机行业的技术协会,已经宣布推迟至少一项重大活动。代表半导体生产设备和材料供应商的SEMI推迟了两项重大活动:定于本周初在首尔举行的Semicon Korea,以及定于3月在上海举行的Semicon China。

Earlier this week, I spoke with SEMI’s president and CEO, Ajit Manocha. Manocha was formerly the CEO at GlobalFoundries, and has also worked at Spansion, at NXP, and at Bell Labs. I asked him about the decision to postpone Semicon Korea only days before the event was scheduled.

本周初,我与SEMI总裁兼CEO Ajit Manocha进行了交谈。Manocha之前是GlobalFoundries的CEO,还曾在Spansion,NXP和Bell Labs工作过。 我询问了Manocha有关推迟举办Semicon Korea的决定。

AJIT MANOCHA: Last week we decided to not host this event after we got inputs from the World Health Organization as well as the CDC and our exhibitors (our stakeholders, I should say), that they were all concerned about sending their people which will be gathering in a convention center. And with 50,000 or 60,000 expected there, everybody felt it’s not safe for the welfare of participants at the event. So we decided to not host this event for the safety and welfare of all the participants for the Semicon Korea. The next event after Semicon Korea is Semicon China, which is in the second half of March this year, and generally we get hundreds of thousands of people in three days at that event. That’s the largest event for SEMI in a year, every year, and basically we are going through the same process there to see the impact of outbreak. We’ve been watching the news on all channels, whether it’s Bloomberg, the World Health Organization or other social media or CDC, and our SEMI team, in SEMI China and SEMI team in SEMI Korea, they’re all every day we’re in sync with each other. And we were starting to prepare the contingency plan for China as well. And as of last night, we decided not to host that event when it’s schedule for March. And one other question was, based on our experience with SARS, this is the second time in SEMI’s history that we have to cancel an event for these kinds of reasons, which are out of our control.

AJIT MANOCHA: 上周,在得到WHO(世界卫生组织),CDC(中国疾病预防控制中心)和我们的参展商(也可以说是我们的利益相关者)的意见后,我们决定不举办此次活动,因为他们都担心派遣人员聚集在会议中心不安全。届时预计会有五到六万人参加活动,所有人都认为,这对会威胁到参会者的安全。因此,出于对Semicon Korea所有参与者的安全和健康的考虑,我们决定不举办此次活动。Semicon Korea之后的下一个活动是Semicon China,该活动原定于今年3月下半月举行,通常情况下,该活动在三天内会吸引数十万人。这是SEMI每年中最大的活动,基本上,我们也正采取与Semicon Korea同样的措施,关注、了解疫情爆发的影响。我们一直在全渠道观看新闻,无论是彭博社,WHO还是其他社交媒体或CDC,我们在SEMI中国的团队和在SEMI韩国的团队,每天都彼此同步信息。我们也开始准备针对中国目前情况的应急计划。截至昨晚,我们决定在取消3月日程表上的这次活动。另一个问题是,根据我们在SARS时期的经验,这是SEMI历史上第二次由于类似原因而不得不取消活动,而这些客观原因是我们无法控制的。

So from the SARS point of view, the impact was like four to six months, and the way that we see that the outbreak is still growing and there’s no vaccine in sight yet, no containment,  so until we know better, we will continue to work on the contingency plan and not subject our people to any risk of contamination from others.

从当年SARS的经历来看,影响持续约4到6个月,而且我们看到疫情仍在继续扩大,并且尚未发现疫苗,也没有遏制措施。因此在我们进一步了解详情之前,我们将继续制定应急计划,同时不让我们的员工有任何受他人传染的风险。

BRIAN SANTO: Manocha acknowledged that postponing the two events is going to be very costly for the organization, but said it was the necessary – and also the right – thing to do.

BRIAN SANTO: Manocha承认推迟这两个活动对于SEMI来说将损失惨重,但他表示这是必要的,也是正确的决定。

The fear of contagion with the recent viral outbreak in China is the same as it was with SARS, but the difference is, that in the 17 years since, China has become far more integral to the global economy. The country is no longer producing just t-shirts and plastic toys; it is now a key supplier of a very wide range of critical goods, including key technologies for the telecommunications, automotive and semiconductor industries.

人们对于中国近期爆发的新冠病毒的恐惧,与对SARS的恐惧一样,不同的是,在SARS爆发之后的17年中,中国已成为全球经济不可或缺的一部分。中国不再仅仅生产T恤和塑料玩具;现在,中国已成为各种关键产品的关键供应商,包括电信、汽车和半导体行业的关键技术在内。

Factories in Wuhan and elsewhere in China have become indispensable in the global economy, and if they are slowed or even shut down in response to the outbreak, that would send shockwaves through the global economy.

武汉和中国其他地区的工厂在全球经济中已变得不可或缺,如果因疫情爆发而减产甚至关厂,这将对全球经济产生冲击。

I asked Manocha if the members of SEMI are detecting any supply chain delays yet.

我问Manocha,SEMI的成员是否正在评估任何供应链方面的延迟交货。

AJIT MANOCHA: The companies have been in constant contact with many stakeholders – many member companies I should say. They’re not giving any quantative impact on the supply chain. I think this is probably a little too early to make an impact, to make an assessment of the impact.

AJIT MANOCHA: 这些公司一直与许多利益相关者保持联系——我应该说许多成员公司。他们不会对供应链产生任何定量影响。我认为现在就进行疫情影响评估还为时过早。

BRIAN SANTO: Just guessing about how disruptive the recent virus will be has already had its effects. Stock markets have reacted with alternating spasms of fear and optimism. Our colleague Barb Jorgenson, the editor-in-chief of EPS News, is an expert on the global electronics supply chain. I got on the line with Barb and international editor Junko Yoshida to find out what will happen if concerns about the virus persist.

BRIAN SANTO: 我只是猜测新冠病毒的破坏力已经产生了影响。 股市目前的反应是恐惧和乐观交替。 我们的同事EPS News的主编Barb Jorgenson是全球电子供应链方面的专家。我与Barb以及国际编辑Junko Yoshida联线进行了沟通,以了解如果对该病毒的担忧持续存在,情况将会如何发展。

BARB JORGENSON: From the outside looking in, in terms of what US companies and sources are saying, that they expect that there will be a production delay longer than what would be normal for the lunar holiday. You usually use about two weeks of production. That’s been expended, so you’re losing closer to three. Materials are going to be delayed coming into and being inventories to the factory. Cargo will be disrupted, because even if sea cargo is able to get in and out of ports, the port of Wuhan is now closed. And passenger transit carries a lot of cargo as well. And that’s been virtually shut off from the rest of the world effectively. So there are expected to be supply chain disruptions resonating across the electronics industry, including into the Americas.

BARB JORGENSON: 从外部看,考虑到美国公司和消息人士的说法,人们预计生产的延迟将比正常情况下春节假期造成的延迟更久。生产通常需要大约两个星期的间。目前这所需生产时间已经被假期消耗掉了,因此你损失了差不多三星期时间。材料将被延迟运进工厂并入库。货物也将受到影响,因为即使海上货物能够进出港口,但武汉的港口已经关闭。客运也在运送着很多货物。实际上中国已跟世界其他地区隔离了。因此,预计整个电子行业都会遭受供应链中断的影响,包括美洲。

BRIAN SANTO: So with that disruption, we’re talking about… well, it’s February now, March, April, May? How far into the future US companies and other companies outside of China planning to have their businesses disrupted?

BRIAN SANTO: 对于这种损害,我们正在讨论。嗯,可能持续到2月,3月,4月,甚至5月? 未来,这种现状预计将会对美国及中国以外公司的业务造成多大程度上的破坏?

BARB JORGENSON: I’m hearing that it could go as long as April, easily. And what I’m really saying is that things may get back up normal by April. But let’s just also remember that it takes 18 weeks to manufacture a semiconductor. It’s about that amount of time to manufacture passives. Again, a lot of US brands are manufacturing out of Wuhan. I’ve heard estimates as long as six months just to get back to normal. There are also expectations that, if this is a significant delay of several months, shortages of components and materials might start to revise. I read today that a German car manufacturer has been unable to restart its production line because materials out of Wuhan are being limited. They depend on steel quite a lot, and apparently Wuhan is the number one region for the output of steel.

BARB JORGENSON: 我听说很可能会持续到4月。我真正想说的是,到4月,情况可能会恢复正常。但我们还要记得,制造半导体需要18周的时间。制造被动元件大约需要同样的时间。同时,许多美国品牌正在武汉城外的地区进行生产。 我听说得长达六个月的时间才能恢复正常。也有人想的是,如果这大幅延迟几个月,零部件和材料的短缺情况可能会有所缓解。我今天读到新闻,一家德国汽车制造商一直无法重启生产线,因为武汉城外的材料有限。他们非常依赖钢铁,显然武汉是第一大钢铁产区。

BRIAN SANTO: Well since you mentioned that, we’re talking about steel, we’re talking about semiconductors, can you give us a quick overview of the types of industry that Wuhan is leading in? Are there any particular types of components or any particular types of ICs and other materials that go into the high tech supply chain?

BRIAN SANTO: 好吧,既然聊到这了,我们正在谈论钢铁,谈论半导体,能否请你简要介绍一下武汉领先的行业类型?在高科技供应链中,是否有任何特定类型的组件或任何特定类型的IC及其他材料?

BARB JORGENSON: Yes. What I’ve heard is, industries that we see are optical electronics, semiconductors, chemicals, life sciences, biotech and food. In the high tech arena, we’re specifically talking about 3D nand and flash. We are talking about applications such as smartphones and computers.

BARB JORGENSON: 是的。据我所知,我们能看到的行业有光电子、半导体、化学、生命科学、生物科技和食品。在高科技领域,我们特别谈到3D Nand和Flash。我们还谈论诸如智能手机和计算机之类的应用程序。

BRIAN SANTO: So this is a pretty far-ranging selection of components and products. When we’re talking about disruption of the supply chain, it’s a pretty significant disruption.

BRIAN SANTO: 所以这是组件和产品的广泛选料。当我们谈论供应链所受的影响时,这将是一次相当大的灾难。

BARB JORGENSON: We’re also talking about the automotive industry. I believe something like 40 brand companies are operating out of Wuhan, and 20 of them are groups like Renault and Peugeot, Daimler. The automotive industry will be significantly impacted. I think it’s probably going to be more for them of getting input of materials. How much they depend on imports to finish, if they’re doing subassemblies there. They may be able to get indigenous components, assuming things aren’t shut down completely. But I think it’ll be the materials either coming into or going out of Wuhan that’s going to be challenge for the automotive industry.

BARB JORGENSON: 我们也谈论汽车行业。我认为约有40个汽车品牌公司在武汉设立经营,其中有20个是雷诺、标致、戴姆勒等这样级别的集团。汽车行业将遭受重大影响。我想对于他们来说,在获取材料方面受到的影响可能会更大。如果要在武汉进行子装配,它们对进口材料数量的依赖程度是多少。假设城市还没有完全封闭,他们也许可以从本土得到组装部件。但我认为,材料要进出武汉,对汽车行业来说将是一个挑战。

BRIAN SANTO: So we’ve already had the trade war that’s been going on for 18 months, something like that. That has had its effects on the supply chain. Does this outbreak of the coronavirus compound things? Does it make it worse? Do we have any expectations of whether it’s something separate?

BRIAN SANTO: 中美之间的贸易战已经持续了18个月。这对供应链产生了影响。这次新型冠状病毒的爆发是否会使事情更加复杂化?会使情况变得更糟吗? 我们对它是否为独立事件有什么期望?

BARB JORGENSON: It’s going to compound the existing situation as it stands. Trade uncertain remains in spite of the Phase One deal that was signed a week or so ago. All electronic components are still subject to 25% tariffs. That hasn’t gone away. Apparently Brexit has finally been decided. There are implications for the British and the EU economies. Coronavirus is just one other thing that is going to be fueling uncertainty. And where our industry is seeing most of the impact is in capital expenditures. That will reportedly decline, both for US manufacturers and for semiconductor equipment manufacturers going into 2020. Nobody really wants to open up their purse strings and start to build a fab in China if China’s going to be effectively cut off from the rest of the world, either through the trade war or through the coronavirus. So the uncertainty is really what’s affecting everything. And more than anything else, it’s affecting spending. And we’re talking big spending.

BARB JORGENSON:  这次疫情将使目前的现状更加复杂。尽管一周左右之前中美双方已经签署了第一阶段协议,但不确定性仍然存在。所有电子组件仍需缴纳25%的关税。这一规定并没有去掉。显然,英国脱欧已成定局,这对英国和欧盟经济都有影响。新冠病毒只是另一件将增加不确定性的事。 我们行业看到的大部分影响是资本支出。据报道,到2020年,对于美国制造商和半导体设备制造商来说,这一数字都将下降。如果中国要与世界其他地区实行隔离政策,没人会真正愿意掏出腰包来在中国建立晶圆厂,不论这种现状是贸易战还是新冠病毒造成的。因此疫情的不确定性确实是影响一切的因素。最重要的是,它影响到了资本支出。我们正在谈论的是大笔支出。

JUNKO YOSHIDA: Barb, you recently talked to IC Insight’s Bill McClean, right? And I think he’s the one who actually really summed it up: Trade war, Brexit, coronavirus. Trifecta.

JUNKO YOSHIDA: Barb,你最近与IC Insight的Bill McClean谈过,对吧? 我认为他对现状的总结真是很到位:贸易战,英国脱欧,冠状病毒——三足鼎立。

BARB JORGENSON: Right.

BARB JORGENSON: 是的。

BRIAN SANTO: Junko and I had this conversation last week. We have a trade war, it’s already disrupting the supply chain, and we’ve already got business uncertainty, and a lot of American business– or at least the stock exchanges around the world– have largely yawned about this. And then finally a virus hits, and that’s when the stock market drops 400, 500 points a day. The question is, What’s the big difference? And the difference might be, this is kind of out of our people’s control. There’s a fear factor here.

BRIAN SANTO: 上周,Junko和我就此开展了讨论。中美之间的贸易战已经打乱了供应链,我们已经有了业务不确定性,而且很多美国公司——或者说至少是世界各地的证券交易所,对惨淡的现状都表示昏昏欲睡。然后,新冠病毒爆发了,那天股市下跌了400点至500点。问题是,疫情和贸易战最大的区别是什么?区别可能是,疫情是我们民众无法控制的。这是人们感到恐惧的一个因素。

JUNKO YOSHIDA: It’s huge! It’s huge in a way that we really don’t know where the truth lies. For example, you and Barb earlier in the discussion were talking about the production of parts and components in the Wuhan area. Now, there are two big semiconductor factories in Wuhan. One is the Yangtse Memory Technology Company, YMTC. And another is XMC. They both make memory chips. And they made a public statement saying that, We are in a business not being able to stop the production because any heavy equipment-dependent factories, it would not stop the production unless it is a scheduled inspection or repair. So whether it’s a New Year’s celebration, spring vacation or coronavirus, they’re not going to stop. But that doesn’t mean that they’re not being impacted. Precisely because the materials and other things that must come into play in production. Maybe it’s okay for now. We don’t know what impact this will have down the line. So that uncertainty– not knowing exactly what’s going on– and getting this public statement saying, Well, no, things are going okay. All is well. Actually, it kind of fuels the fear.

JUNKO YOSHIDA: 区别很大!之所以说区别大,是因为我们确实不知道真相在哪。例如,在开始讨论时,你和Barb聊的是武汉地区的零部件生产。现在,武汉有两家大的半导体工厂。一个是长江存储科技有限责任公司(YMTC),另一个是武汉新芯集成电路制造有限公司(XMC)。这两家公司都制造内存芯片。他们均发表了公开声明称:“我们从事的业务无法停止生产,任何依赖重型设备的工厂都不会停产,除非是进行定期检查或维修。因此,无论是新年庆祝活动,春假还是新冠病毒,工厂都不会停产。”但这并不意味着他们没有受到影响。正因为材料和其他必须在生产中发挥作用的东西受到影响。也许现在的生产情况还可以。但我们不知道这将来会带来什么影响。这样的不确定性——不知道疫情发展到底是如何了——并公开声明说,一切都会好起来的。一切都很好。实际上这种做法反而助长了恐惧。

BARB JORGENSON: That’s a good point. And I would add, I think the thing that is most tangible to people really are other people. And my sources have told me that the people movement before the lunar holiday is the biggest in the world. And what we will see I full expect are people not coming back to work. That’s a factor even in the best of circumstances. Apparently some folks stay home to get a job closer to where they live or where they used to live. Some people just don’t think it’s worth going back. I think with the kind of quarantine and shutdown situation, I think one of the biggest impacts we’ll see really is just people just not coming back to work. And I think that’s something that those of us who aren’t supply chain wonks can see straightaway. You don’t need to be a supply chain geek to understand that people are really being impacted here.

BARB JORGENSON: 这是个很好的观点。 而且我想补充一点,我认为对人们之间的接触是一大问题。我的消息来源让我获知,中国春节假期前的春运是全世界人口流动量最大的活动。我预计未来会看到的情况是人们不会再去复工。这是即使在最好的情况下也存在的一个因素。显然,有些人计划留在家乡,以便找到离他们住所或家乡更近的工作。有些人认为保险起见,不值得复工。我认为在隔离和停工的情况下,真正的最大影响之一就是人们不愿意回去工作了。我认为这是我们当中那些非供应链从业者,也可以直接看到的情况。你不用是供应链从业者,你也能了解到,人们确实受到很大影响。

JUNKO YOSHIDA: When we compare coronavirus with the time that we had SARS, the importance of China in the global economy has really changed. Back in SARS days, as somebody said, that was just about when China was getting into the World Trade Organization, right? So given that, and a lot of the progress China has made over the years in terms of high-speed rail, getting into Wuhan and the new factories being built in the last 10 years, it’s a night and day difference. Wuhan, economically speaking, has become so much more important than ever before, right?

JUNKO YOSHIDA: 当我们将新冠病毒与SARS时期的情况进行比较时,要考虑到中国在全球经济中的重要性确实已经发生改变。正如人们所说,非典时期,那时中国刚加入世界贸易组织,对吧? 鉴于过去这些年来,中国的发展就像步入高铁轨道那样迅速,武汉,以及过去十年中国兴建的新工厂方面都取得许多进步,这是天壤之别。从经济上来讲,武汉比以往任何时候都变得更加重要,对吗?

BARB JORGENSON: It’s an important economic hub. Wuhan’s GDP reached 213 billion as of 2018. It’s a major transportation and manufacturing hub. It’s really connected to the global economy. And we’re talking everything from chip manufacturing to biomedicine. And specifically (and this is kind of mind blowing), half of the Fortune 500 have facilities, operations or manufacturing sites within Wuhan. In fact, DHL put out a report within the past week to already expect shipment delays. They said tracking and rail cargo services in the province have ground to a halt. They also talk about how the… If you use the epicenter as Wuhan, it just cascades out from there, regardless of what city you’re in.

BARB JORGENSON: 武汉是重要的经济枢纽。2018年,武汉的GDP达到2130亿美元。这里是主要的交通和制造业枢纽,确实与全球经济息息相关。我们正在谈论从芯片制造到生物医学。 特别是(这真是令人震惊),《财富》 500强企业中有一半的公司都在武汉拥有设施、运营或生产基地。实际上,DHL在过去一周内发布了一份报告称,已经预期发货会延迟。 他们说,湖北省的物流跟踪和铁路货运服务都已经关闭。他们还讨论了如何……如果将武汉作为示例,不管你身处哪个城市,都会遇到类似情况。

BRIAN SANTO: For all of the economic disruption that has occurred already and that may yet come, this is still a story about a health emergency. Citizens of China have to deal with the virus itself, along with quarantines and worries about shortages of supplies. Like many other companies in the high-tech industry, we have operations in China, and we’re worried about our colleagues there.

BRIAN SANTO: 对于已经发生,以及可能发生的所有经济动荡,这仍是关于突发卫生事件的。 中国公民必须应对病毒本身,以及隔离和对供应短缺的担忧。 与高科技行业中许多其他的公司一样,我们在中国也开展业务,对此我们感到担忧。

Junko recently spoke with one of our co-workers, Echo Zhao, who occasionally contributes to EE Times and who has been a guest on this podcast in the past. Echo lives and works in Shenzhen, a dynamic city of twelve and a half million people roughly 680 miles from Wuhan. Here’s her conversation with Junko.

Junko最近跟我们的一位同事, Echo Zhao进行了交谈,Echo时不时会为EE Times供稿,并且也曾是我们播客的采访嘉宾。Echo在深圳生活和工作,深圳是一个充满活力的城市,有1250万人口,距武汉约680公里。以下是她与Junko的对话。

JUNKO YOSHIDA: So do you go outside at all?

JUNKO YOSHIDA: 你现在出门吗?

ECHO ZHAO: No.

ECHO ZHAO: 不出去。

JUNKO YOSHIDA: What do you see on streets? You stay home?

JUNKO YOSHIDA: 你看到街上是什么样?你完全待在家里吗?

ECHO ZHAO: I stay home. Actually, I spent my vacation abroad with my big family, and came back at midnight. And then I never went out of my home. I stay in.

ECHO ZHAO: 我就待在家里。实际上我和我们一大家子人一起出国度春节假,然后在半夜抵达深圳。那之后我再也没有出过家门。我就待在家里。

JUNKO YOSHIDA: Oh, wow. But when you came back, you landed at Shenzhen Airport, I suppose. And you came home. What did you see on the streets? Hardly any traffic? Very few cars?

JUNKO YOSHIDA: 哇,不过我估计你回来时是降落在深圳机场的。你回家了,在街上看到了什么吗?街上是不是几乎没人?只有很少的汽车?

ECHO ZHAO: That day it was midnight since a flight delay. I barely saw people in the street. During the daytime, because my apartment is on the thirty-first floor, I have good eyes on the whole street.

ECHO ZHAO: 那天因为航班延误,到家已经是半夜了,我几乎没看见街上有人。 白天的时候,因为我家在31楼,所以我的视野很好,能看到整条街。

JUNKO YOSHIDA: So you can see. Yeah. What do you observe?

JUNKO YOSHIDA: 能看到整条街。是的,你观察到什么?

ECHO ZHAO: I can see from my balcony. There are a few cars and pedestrians there.

ECHO ZHAO: 我可以从阳台上看到街上。街上有少量汽车和行人。

JUNKO YOSHIDA: But a lot fewer cars, compared to the usual, right?

JUNKO YOSHIDA: 但是与平时相比,汽车要少很多,对吗?

ECHO ZHAO: Right.

ECHO ZHAO: 是的。

JUNKO YOSHIDA: I’m kind of curious. You said you haven’t gone outside. And you came back Saturday. So do you have any food at home?

JUNKO YOSHIDA: 我有点好奇。你说到目前还没出过门。那你星期六回来,家里有吃的吗?

ECHO ZHAO: Well, it’s very lucky that in a big city like Shenzhen, we are already used to ordering online, so we can buy fresh vegetables and meats by our cell phone. So I can survive. I can survive without going out!

ECHO ZHAO: 好吧,很幸运,在深圳这样的大城市,我们已经习惯了在线购物,所以我们可以通过手机购买新鲜的蔬菜和肉类。所以我能生存,我不出门也能生存!

JUNKO YOSHIDA: Oh, I see. So you have a service. You can order fresh food online. And these people are actually working in other words, right?

JUNKO YOSHIDA: 哦我明白了。所以你们有这类服务。你可以在线采购新鲜食品。换句话说,这些提供服务的人员实际上是仍在工作对吗?

ECHO ZHAO: Right. The government did some work to make sure that the supplies are normal.

ECHO ZHAO: 对,政府做了些工作来确保正常供应。

JUNKO YOSHIDA: Okay. Very good. You have a son. When does he go back to school?

JUNKO YOSHIDA: 好的,很棒。你有个儿子。他什么时候回学校?

ECHO ZHAO: My son is still on his winter vacation. The scheduled opening time of school is by the 17th. So he’s still on vacation. But now the Education Bureau is working on some online education software, and maybe during the first two weeks they will study online at home.

ECHO ZHAO: 我儿子仍在放寒假。 学校的预定开学时间是2月17日。所以他现在还在放假。目前教育局正在开发一些在线教育软件,也许在开学头两周内他们将在家中进行在线学习。

JUNKO YOSHIDA: Wow! They are getting ready for the worst-case scenario. In other words, just in case that kids can’t go back to school in time, they’re already getting ready with the online education program. That’s interesting.

JUNKO YOSHIDA: 哇!教育局已经准备好应对最坏的情况。换句话说,以防孩子们不能按时返校,他们已经在准备在线教育项目。这很有意思。

ECHO ZHAO: So my kid is not happy.

ECHO ZHAO: 所以我的孩子很不开心。

JUNKO YOSHIDA: Because he has to stay home, right?

JUNKO YOSHIDA: 因为他必须待在家里,对吗?

ECHO ZHAO: It’s like a prison for him.

ECHO ZHAO: 这对他来说就像蹲监狱。

JUNKO YOSHIDA: And then his mother’s always watching him, right?

JUNKO YOSHIDA: 然后他妈妈还一直监视他,对吗?

ECHO ZHAO: Right. Right. I’m not happy about that.

ECHO ZHAO: 对,这种情况我也很不乐见。

JUNKO YOSHIDA: All right. So since you haven’t gone out, you might not have seen it firsthand, but what about public transportation? Subways, buses, taxis. Are these things running?

JUNKO YOSHIDA: 好吧。既然你还没有出过门,就可能没有亲眼看到,不过公共交通工具呢?地铁、公交、出租车,这些都还运行吗?

ECHO ZHAO: I think so. Because I stay home, so I just get it from the news. In most cities, yes. But not Wuhan. The public transport in Wuhan was shut down several days ago.

ECHO ZHAO: 我想,是的。因为我待在家里,所以我只能从新闻中了解相关消息。在大多数城市,公共交通是仍然在运行的。不过武汉除外。几天前,武汉的公共交通已经关闭。

JUNKO YOSHIDA: Okay.

JUNKO YOSHIDA: 好吧。

ECHO ZHAO: But in Shenzhen, subways and buses maintain the same service time. But extends the interval.

ECHO ZHAO: 但在深圳,地铁和公交的服务时间未变,只是班次间隔延长了。

JUNKO YOSHIDA: What’s the reaction you’re hearing from your friend, family? How are they coping with the situation?

JUNKO YOSHIDA: 你的朋友、家人对这次疫情的反应是什么?他们如何应对目前的情况?

ECHO ZHAO: People understand that we stay at home is actually doing good for our country. The doctors, the policemen, they are doing in their own way to help us. But we stay at home. We keep safe. So that’s what normal people can do to help the nation.

ECHO ZHAO: 人们明白我们待在家里实际上就是对国家做贡献。医生、警察,他们正以自己的方式帮助我们。我们待在家里,保持安全。这就是普通人可以为国家做的事情。

JUNKO YOSHIDA: Right. Okay. So your office is also closed, but your colleagues are also supposed to be working from home this week. Is that right?

JUNKO YOSHIDA: 对,好的。你们的办公室也关闭了,不过你的同事们本周也应该是在家工作。是这样吗?

ECHO ZHAO: Right. We resumed our work this Monday, and 90% of colleagues can work online.

ECHO ZHAO: 对。我们在本周一复工,并且90%的同事可以在线办公。

JUNKO YOSHIDA: Do you stay in touch with them on WeChat? Or how do you work remotely?

JUNKO YOSHIDA: 你在微信上与他们保持联系?你们是如何远程办公呢?

ECHO ZHAO: Now we have several softwares, and mostly we use WeChat. At the same time, I think it’s a good opportunity for telecommuting companies to promote their products.

ECHO ZHAO: 目前我们有好几种软件,大多数情况下我们使用微信。同时,我认为这是远程办公公司推广产品的好机会。

JUNKO YOSHIDA: That’s true. That’s true, yeah. So you try to see the bright side of this thing. But you and I just talked just before we turned on our microphones. One of the things that I worry about is that we all want to see this end as soon as possible. But at the same time, it is hard for any authority– whether it’s the Chinese government or WHO– to declare that things are fine as long as the number of the people who are infected and the number of people who die grow every day. And you were saying that you keep up with that information. You’re saying that not just every day, every hour you see the number growing. Right?

JUNKO YOSHIDA: 是的,确实如此。所以你在尝试以积极的角度来看待这件事。 但是在我们语音对话前,我们刚刚聊过。我担心的一件事是,我们所有人都希望疫情尽快结束。但同时,无论是中国政府还是世界卫生组织——只要每天仍有被感染人数和死亡人数在增加,当局就很难宣布情况好转。 你说你实时关注着新消息。你是说,不仅是每天,每小时你看到的数字都在增加,对吗?

ECHO ZHAO: Right. We still don’t know how much it will affect. We hope we can go back to the office next Monday, but nobody can make sure about that.

ECHO ZHAO: 是的。我们仍然不知道疫情会影响多少人。我们希望下周一能回到办公室里工作,但没人能保证可行。

JUNKO YOSHIDA: And you were saying that this is not the first time that this ordeal, it’s not the first time you experienced. You actually are old enough to experience the previous epidemic with the SARS. Is that correct? 2003?

JUNKO YOSHIDA: 你说这不是第一次面对这样的艰难局面,不是你第一次经历类似情况。 实际上你也经历过之前的SARS,对吗?在2003年?

ECHO ZHAO: Right.

ECHO ZHAO: 对。

JUNKO YOSHIDA: What was it like? What’s the difference? What was it like? And what’s the difference between that time and now?

JUNKO YOSHIDA: 当时情况是怎么样?跟现在有什么不同?当时感觉如何?跟现在的情况相比有什么区别?

ECHO ZHAO: Well, I was a little younger at that time. At that time, the smartphone was not popular. I mean, we had the internet. We got the information. But nowadays we got information in time. So the news is very transparent, but for the epidemic itself, I think it’s not that serious, but it spreads more quickly. The time period is lower.

ECHO ZHAO: 当时我更年轻些。那时候智能手机还不普及。 我的意思是,我们那时候有互联网,也能获取信息。但是如今我们能获取实时信息。所以现在的新闻非常透明。但相比SARS,我认为这次新冠肺炎的病症没有SARS那么严重,但新冠肺炎的传染速度更快。传染开来的时间较短。

JUNKO YOSHIDA: Yeah, that’s what they say. I see that some of your colleagues are actually reporting about the impact of coronavirus in the electronics industry in China. Have they been able to get enough information to do their job?

JUNKO YOSHIDA: 是的,都是这么说的。我看到你的一些同事实际上正在报道新冠病毒对中国电子行业的影响。他们是否能够获得充足的信息来完成工作?

ECHO ZHAO: Actually, we’re still on vacation, because the government extends it. I believe the epidemic is affecting the industry, but we still don’t know how much.

ECHO ZHAO: 实际上我们仍在休假中,因为政府延长了春节假期。我相信疫情正在影响整个行业,但我们目前仍不清楚影响程度有多少。

JUNKO YOSHIDA: Right. The extent.

JUNKO YOSHIDA: 对,影响程度。

ECHO ZHAO: And we can see the immediate effect is maybe for the tourist, restaurant, hotel and entertainment. But for the electronics industry, we need more time.

ECHO ZHAO: 我们可以看到的即时影响,可能是针对旅游、饭店、酒店和娱乐行业。但对于电子行业,我们需要更多时间才能弄清楚受影响的程度。

JUNKO YOSHIDA: Yeah. To figure out. That’s true. Except for a few conferences, global conferences, have been already canceled. That’s actually not good in our industry.

JUNKO YOSHIDA: 是的,需要时间去弄清楚。确实如此。少数会议除外,那些全球会议,已被取消。 实际上这对我们的行业很不利。

ECHO ZHAO: And we are considering if we need to delay our China Fabless conference.

ECHO ZHAO: 我们也正在考虑,是否推迟我们的中国Fabless会议。

JUNKO YOSHIDA: Right. That was China Fabless conference in March. We could also be impacted directly. Your company, I mean our company itself.

JUNKO YOSHIDA: 对,那是三月份在中国举办的Fabless会议。我们也可能直接受到影响。你们公司,也就是我们公司。

ECHO ZHAO: Right. Right.

ECHO ZHAO: 是的。

JUNKO YOSHIDA: What do you expect going forward? What do you watch for in terms of the signs of recovery? What do you look for? Do you think people’s lives will pretty much go normal next week?

JUNKO YOSHIDA: 你对未来的预期如何?在复苏的迹象方面,你需要关注什么?你在关注哪些方面?你认为下一周人们的生活会恢复正常吗?

ECHO ZHAO: I don’t think so.

ECHO ZHAO: 我不这么认为。

JUNKO YOSHIDA: You don’t think so.

JUNKO YOSHIDA: 你不这么认为。

ECHO ZHAO: I don’t think so. Yeah. Yeah. I think most of the people will stay at home. This week, most companies’ employees choose to work from home. Even Huawei’s staff.

ECHO ZHAO: 是的,我不这么认为。我认为大多数人都会待在家里。本周,大多数公司的员工都选择在家办公。 甚至是华为的员工。

JUNKO YOSHIDA: Oh, even Huawei is also imposing their employees to work from home. But you will go back to the office next week?

JUNKO YOSHIDA: 噢,甚至华为也要求员工在家办公。 但下周你们会回到办公室吗?

ECHO ZHAO: We are planning for that.

ECHO ZHAO: 我们正为此做打算。

JUNKO YOSHIDA: But again, we’ll see.

JUNKO YOSHIDA: 不过到时候才知道能不能成。

ECHO ZHAO: We’ll see.

ECHO ZHAO: 到时候才知道。

JUNKO YOSHIDA: Now, my last question. Wuhan was already in a situation where they actually called it “lock down,” right? It’s a locked down city. I was talking to somebody in Shanghai, actually, this morning, and he was telling me that the situation in Shanghai appears to be similar to Shenzhen. It’s not locked down, but most shops and restaurants are closed. Is that actually normal in most big cities in China now? At least this week?

JUNKO YOSHIDA: 现在我想问最后一个问题。实际上武汉已经处于所说的“封城”状态,对吗?目前武汉是一个封闭的城市。事实上今天早晨,我与某个居住在上海的朋友交谈,他告诉我,上海的情况似乎与深圳相似——没有封城,但大多数商店和餐馆都关着门。 这在目前中国大多数大城市中是否正常?至少在这个星期内?

ECHO ZHAO: I think besides Wuhan, so Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, the population here is very, very dense, and many people. Maybe we have some people from Hubei who work in these big cities. So these big cities also have many confirmed cases.

ECHO ZHAO: 我认为除了武汉外,北京、上海、深圳,这些城市的人口总量很大,人口非常密集。 也许有相当数量的湖北人在这些大城市工作。因此这些大城市也有很多确诊病例。

JUNKO YOSHIDA: Right. Confirmed cases. So that’s why they are being extra careful. Well, all right. Well, take care. And don’t go stir crazy staying at home all day.

JUNKO YOSHIDA: 对的,确诊病例。这就是为什么他们要格外小心。好吧,请多保重。而且不要因为整天闷在家里给憋疯了。

BRIAN SANTO: That was International editor Junko Yoshida with Echo Zhao, who is Chief Analyst of AspenCore China. EE Times and our sister publications here at AspenCore will continue to monitor the situation in China as it unfolds.

BRIAN SANTO: 以上是国际编辑Junko Yoshida和AspenCore中国区首席分析师Echo Zhao。 EE Times将与我们AspenCore的姊妹出版物一道,继续关注中国的情况,因为疫情持续在发展。

BRIAN SANTO: That’s your Weekly Briefing for the week ending February 7th. The Weekly Briefing appears every Friday on all the major podcast sites. Do us a favor — if you like what you’ve been hearing, share the podcast with your co-workers and friends. We also invite you to leave a comment on the podcast page on our web site, eetimes.com, where we provide a transcript of every podcast. This podcast is Produced by AspenCore Studio. It was Engineered by Taylor Marvin and Greg McRae at Coupe Studios. The Segment Producer was Kaitie Huss. I’m Brian Santo. See you next week.

BRIAN SANTO: 这是截至2月7日的本周播报。“每周播报”会在每个周五上传到所有主流播客网址。如果你喜欢并支持我们的节目,敬请分享我们的播客给你的同事和朋友。我们欢迎您在我们的网址eetimes.com对播客作出点评。我们的网址上有每期节目的文字版本。该播客由 AspenCore Studio制作。Coupe Studios的Taylor Marvin和Greg McRae担任设计。Kaitie Huss担任片段制作。 我是Brian Santo,我们下周见。

 

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